Canonical: https://thonly.org/research/program/register · Licence: CC0 1.0
Sixty-six pre-registered predictions arising from the research program stated in [which-way-value-moves](which-way-value-moves.md). One further prediction is withheld from publication (operational channel economics); its existence is recorded here so the count is honest, bringing the true total to sixty-seven.
Status vocabulary. Unrun — registered, no observation attempted. Running — instrument live, data accumulating, not yet read. Resolved — read against its falsifier. Contradicted — the data went against it. Retired — superseded by a ruling that made it moot; kept, never deleted.
Provenance. Published — the prediction already appears in a corpus paper carrying that paper's OpenTimestamps and RFC 3161 proofs. First public here — the prediction existed only in internal records until this document; its first external timestamp is this file's.
Reading rule. Predictions marked running must not be read early, and participants must not be prompted toward the predicted behavior. A prompt voids the test.
| Count | |
|---|---|
| Total registered | 67 |
| Published here | 66 |
| Withheld (operational) | 1 |
| Already carried by a published paper | 45 |
| Memory-only before today | 22 (21 published here + 1 withheld) |
| Receiving first public timestamp here | 21 |
| Run | 2 (both desk censuses) |
| Field tests run | 0 |
| Contradicted | 1 |
| Retired | 1 |
If one of these fails, the program ends rather than adjusts.
| ID | Prediction | Falsifier | Status | Provenance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P-GO1 | A system forbidding backward return produces more onward giving per unit received than an otherwise-identical permissive system | Equal or greater onward giving under the permissive condition → the constraint is aesthetic, not mechanical | Unrun | First public here |
| P-K1 | As external subsidy for a kind act approaches zero, the rate of the act does not approach zero | Kindness rate tracks subsidy proportionally → the behavior was priced throughout | Unrun | First public here |
| P-L2 | Witnessed presence generates more downstream giving than unwitnessed presence of equal duration | Equal downstream gratitude when unwitnessed → the chronicle is decorative and the institution's core claim is wrong | Unrun | Published (co-presence-gated-redemption §10) |
| P-R2 | Product-dependence begins to fall after the inflection | Dependence never falls → the raft is a boat | Unrun | First public here |
| P-B3 | The proportion of creators electing to dedicate their share does not decline over time | Dedication collapses once money is visible → the offering frame is eroding | Unrun | Published (dedicatory-generation) |
Does receiving create giving? If not, forward-only motion is depletion, not circulation.
| ID | Prediction | Status | Provenance |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-IA1 | The receiver is legible as benefactor, not need — the sitter supplies a merit-field rather than displaying a lack | Unrun | Published (inverted-alms-round) |
| P-IA2 | Second inverted-alms prediction as registered in the paper | Unrun | Published (inverted-alms-round) |
| P-IA3 | Third inverted-alms prediction as registered in the paper | Unrun | Published (inverted-alms-round) |
| P-G1 | Once the app manufactures obligation, a return visit no longer distinguishes gratitude practice from guilt — publish either way | Unrun | Published (sacrifice-witness-without-discharge) |
| P-G2 | Second B-Grace prediction as registered in the paper | Unrun | Published (sacrifice-witness-without-discharge) |
| P-G3 | The meal-anchor outperforms gamification; gamifying at launch makes this untestable | Unrun | Published (sacrifice-witness-without-discharge) |
| P-W1 | Users with higher thing-capture frequency show higher rates of the primed downstream behavior — registered pre-build | Unrun | Published (appreciation-as-world-building) |
| P-E1 | First graduation-by-transmission prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (the-game-that-graduates-you) |
| P-E2 | Second graduation-by-transmission prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (the-game-that-graduates-you) |
| P-E3 | Third graduation-by-transmission prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (the-game-that-graduates-you) |
| P-M2 | Matched-stakes prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (the-wager-that-isnt) |
| P-M3 | Patron-pot prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (the-wager-that-isnt) |
| — | Kids-as-triggers — children are the primary triggers of household self-thanking | Contradicted (parents self-thanked more; n=1, confounded, not hardened) | Published (kids-as-triggers-self-thanking) |
Does an hour behave like a dollar? If not, the invariance claim is false.
| ID | Prediction | Falsifier / note | Status | Provenance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P-C0a | Completed pledges produce captured moments at a rate no higher than the family's baseline capture rate | If so, the handoff is decorative and Chronicle v1 should not be built around it. Read on the 28-day window against 4.5/wk | Running, unread | First public here |
| P-C0b | Shorts linked to a completed time-sacrifice do not out-perform ordinary moments on watch-through and re-tip rate | ⚠️ Instrument defect, disclosed: completion rate is biased against the hypothesis — longer recordings score lower by construction, so P-C0b would read confirmed mechanically. Restricted to views/wk and re-tip rate until repaired | Running, restricted | First public here |
| P-C0c | Redeemers who capture cannot articulate the re-tip motive when asked afterward | Tests whether the stated mechanism arises unprompted, which neither original falsifier covered | Running, unread | First public here |
| P-C1 | Chronicle handoff prediction as registered | — | Unrun | Published (co-presence-gated-redemption) |
| P-C2 | De-facto-rate tripwire, publish either way | — | Unrun | Published (co-presence-gated-redemption) |
| P-C3 | Standing de-facto-rate tripwire, publish either way | — | Unrun | Published (co-presence-gated-redemption) |
| P-L1 | Hours co-spent predict relationship warmth better than money sent, messages exchanged, or stated affection | — | Unrun | Published (co-presence-gated-redemption) |
| P-L3 | Two arms — silent after pledge vs one offer to reach out — measuring redemption rate and recipient-reported warmth | The motivate/nag boundary made falsifiable | Unrun | Published (co-presence-gated-redemption) |
| P-M1 | In-person key verification failed for thirty years on the invitation, not the cryptography; a redeemed hour is the first pretext that was never about keys | — | Unrun | Published (co-presence-gated-redemption §4.6) |
| P-SK1 | Superseded by the not-a-calendar ruling | Kept, not deleted | Retired | Published |
Does it survive past the family? The chapter carrying the most weight and the least evidence.
| ID | Prediction | Status | Provenance |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-S1 | Strangers become named — name-recall instrument | Unrun | Published (the-sport-that-says-your-name) |
| P-S2 | The bet — a friendlier atmosphere follows. If P-S2 returns null, the slogan is a lie that already shipped | Unrun | Published |
| P-S3 | As registered in the paper | Unrun | Published |
| P-S4 | A circle reaching Hard shows ≥90% correct name-and-pronunciation recall at 1 week | Unrun | Published |
| P-S5 | The recess test, publish either way — within 2 weeks of teacher-led sessions, ≥1 unprompted student-organized circle at recess, and ≥1 mixing children from another classroom | Unrun — gated on Aug 2027 | Published |
| P-S6 | The caller mechanic requires ≥3 receivers; below that selection is impossible or strictly predictable | Unrun | Published |
| P-S7 | The founder's classroom acquisition prediction | Unrun | Published |
| P-S8 | The maintenance/durability prediction — structurally distinct from P-S7's acquisition claim | Unrun | Published |
| P-S9 | In a circle where every name is known, the favorite-nickname format produces ≥1 unprompted follow-up outside the circle | Unrun | First public here |
| P-S10a | The guard (non-inferiority): circles running roll calls meet at least as often as comparable circles that do not. Must pass | Unrun | First public here |
| P-S10b | A coupled roll call can never cause the first re-meeting after a lapse — which is what the bet is about | Unrun | First public here |
| P-S11a | The handoff — does an IRL circle open a roll call unprompted? Without it the real/virtual pairing is theoretical | Unrun | First public here |
| P-S11b | The payload — needs a survey or observation instrument, not analytics | Unrun | First public here |
| P-S12 | The walk-up. An adult not in a live circle approaches and is admitted; play absorbs them without friction. Zero code; decides the entire found-circle branch | Unrun | First public here |
| P-S13 | Does the person-pin add anything the return does not? | Unrun | First public here |
| P-S14 | The manufactured gathering. The founder declares a return at a place he frequents; ≥1 person not already planning to be there comes and plays. Needs no app — a text message runs it | Unrun | First public here |
| P-CS1 | Warm-up extension — median sey minutes rise across a season; stronger instrument, players ask to continue past the coach's stop | Unrun | Published (circulation-sports) |
| P-CS2 | Scoring displacement (a) — in circles with ≥3 sessions, unscored sessions outnumber count-down sessions | Unrun | Published |
| P-CS2a | The uncomfortable one — once Team mode unlocks, circles may overwhelmingly prefer it, because competition is fun | Unrun | First public here |
| P-CS3 | Participation, framed as a property of the format never of women — the circulatory format sustains mixed-gender play longer | Unrun | Published |
| P-CS4 | Three generations, re-specified against the pickleball counterexample that already exists | Unrun | Published |
| P-CS5 | Warm-up census — score mainstream warm-ups against the three circulation properties | RUN 2026-08-07 → PARTIAL NULL. Read the full result before any uniqueness claim | Published |
| P-CS6 | Across a wider census including field data, no reach-guaranteeing format will be found whose receiver order is unpredictable across unbounded repeated play | Unrun | Published |
| P-SY1 | If designed excellently, asking for a name self-authored is accepted rather than refused — founder pre-registration, observable at n=1, costs nothing | Unrun | First public here |
| P-SY2 | The payload — names captured by self-recording are pronounced correctly at the next meeting more often than names typed or recorded by the collector | Unrun | First public here |
| P-SY3 | When offered, does a new acquaintance provide a photo, or skip? | Unrun | First public here |
| P-Q1 | B-Quest pilot prediction as registered | Unrun | Published (need-compiled-questlines) |
| P-Q2 | Second B-Quest prediction as registered | Unrun | Published |
| P-Q3 | Third B-Quest prediction as registered | Unrun | Published |
| P-BB1 | Food-share wager, publish either way | Unrun | Published (steward-routed-alms) |
| P-BB2 | Revival prediction | Unrun | Published |
| P-BB3 | Decoupling tripwire | Unrun | Published |
| P-R1 | The catalyst bet | Unrun | First public here |
| (unnumbered) | Second desk census — naming/sport novelty. Not a registered prediction; recorded because it was run and returned null | RUN → NULL. Read before any novelty claim | Internal |
Does it survive the giver?
This chapter has no predictions.
That is reported, not hidden. Its feedback loop exceeds the founder's lifetime, and no instrument has been specified. The boundary is ruled — merit is not conveyed between destinations; you cannot give to the dead, so you give to the living in their name — but a ruling is not a test. The chapter is inherited rather than completed.
Registering the first span-chapter prediction is the largest open item in this program.
These papers name predictions, but the predictions test something other than the direction core. Listed for completeness; they are not evidence for or against the program.
| ID | Paper | Subject |
|---|---|---|
| P-A1, P-A2 | abhidhamma-executable-process-specification | Resting-state diagnosticity |
| P-P1 | patthana-typed-causation-vocabulary | Typed causation vocabulary |
| P-B1, P-B2 | dedicatory-generation | Fidelity of restoration; refusal-channel yield |
| ID | Reason |
|---|---|
| P-GTM1 | Operational channel economics (outreach reply-rate base rates). Withheld under the publication posture; recorded here so the total is honest. |
Each published paper carries its own proof files. To check that a prediction has not been altered since registration, verify the stating paper against its stored proof rather than trusting this register — this file is a convenience index, and the proofs are the evidence.
No file in this corpus records its own hash. The proofs are external artifacts; the verification procedure is published with them.
Predictions are added, never removed. A resolved prediction keeps its original wording beside its outcome. A correction is a new entry citing the one it corrects — registered wording is never edited in place, because an edit would break the very property this register exists to provide.